Split Decisions in GOP Primaries
The Republicans have held three nominating elections en route to their selection of a presidential candidate for the 2012 election against current president Barack Obama. In Iowa, revised numbers gave Rick Santorum the win. In New Hampshire, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won. And now, most recently, 40% of South Carolina voters selected Newt Gingrich, giving him the win. Three votes and three different winners – it looks like the pundits claiming that the Republican party is fractured are quite right. So what does this all mean for the men still in the race?
Mitt Romney: yes, now is a good time to start panicking. Mr. Romney has treated his campaign thus far as mere formality; his eye has always been on the race against Mr. Obama. But in so doing, Mr. Romney has managed to make himself look quite presumptuous. Before Iowa, he was campaigning in New Hampshire; before New Hampshire, he was in South Carolina; and before South Carolina, he was in Florida. This strategy has worked in only one vote, however. And it’s arguable that extreme negative ads were the only thing that kept Mr. Gingrich from a better finish in Iowa and New Hampshire. With Mr. Romney stumbling, will the money be there to stop support for Mr. Gingrich before Mr. Romney finds himself behind?
Rick Santorum: who will you endorse when you drop out? No one expected Mr. Santorum to win, not even the candidate himself. Now the question is who will he steer his supporters toward when he drops out? Rick Perry may be a good lead to follow for Mr. Santorum. Mr. Perry dropped out before South Carolina and endorsed Mr. Gingrich. That’s not the reason that Mr. Gingrich won, but it certainly didn’t hurt. Mr. Santorum’s choices are between a Mormon, a faith not exactly aligned with his own Roman Catholic beliefs, or Mr. Gingrich, a recent Catholic convert. This information seems to favor Mr. Gingrich.
Ron Paul: do you want to run for President and give Mr. Obama the win? Mr. Paul is not a real contender in this election. He never has been. In fact, by staying so far below the radar, he has escaped national outcry over racist newsletters published in his name. But Mr. Paul continues to draw small numbers of fervent supporters. A third-party run is not outside the realm of possibilities for Mr. Paul. But Mr. Paul would draw more from potential Republican voters than he would from potential Democrats. This could be a decisive factor in giving Mr. Obama the win, especially if the election is very close – think Ralph Nader in 2000.
Newt Gingrich: how long can you sustain this? There’s no doubt that Mr. Gingrich is doing well right now. He has resurrected his campaign from certain death not once but twice! First, his campaign staff all quit because he went on a cruise with his wife. But Mr. Gingrich came back. Second, he lost handily in Iowa and New Hampshire, but now has come back to win South Carolina. But can Mr. Gingrich keep it up? If he can win Florida, then Mr. Gingrich will have a decent chance at sustaining his momentum. Indeed, if past is prologue, no Republican candidate has ever won the nomination without winning South Carolina. But Mr. Gingrich’s organization problems (see first campaign death, above) have him not competing in some key states, including Virginia. Mr. Romney may be able to hold out in the long run.
Barack Obama: one day longer. The longer the nominating race goes, the better chance Mr. Obama has to win. Mr. Romney looks like the most formidable opponent, but his struggles mean good news for Mr. Obama. And with positive economic data continuing, Mr. Obama may have the upper hand when it comes to the general election. So, hold out, Gingrich supporters! One day longer, one day stronger!
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